The race to succeed Kisumu Central Member of Parliament Joshua Oron is slowly gathering momentum, with several aspirants already positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Hon Oron, who is serving his first term as MP, is widely viewed as a strong contender for the Kisumu governor’s seat, creating what political observers describe as one of the most competitive parliamentary contests in the lakeside city.
Among those seeking to capture the influential constituency seat are former MP Fred Ouda, Kondele Ward MCA Joachim Oketch, Kisumu County Chief Officer for Education Bovince Ochieng, businessman Abdul Kadir, philanthropist Edward Onyango popularly known as “Bob CEO”, Cedric Otieno, and Bernard Aete.
Except for Cedric Otieno, who plans to contest on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, all the aspirants are eyeing the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party ticket, setting the stage for a bruising nomination battle in one of ODM’s traditional strongholds.
Political analysts say the contest is likely to revolve around popularity among the youth, grassroots networks, party loyalty, and the ability to finance campaigns.
Ouda Banking on Political Experience
Former Kisumu Central MP Fred Ouda is among the most experienced politicians in the race.
He was elected in 2017 after previously serving as a Member of County Assembly in neighbouring Siaya County.
However, his political comeback faces major hurdles following his loss in the 2022 election.
“Ouda still has name recognition and political experience, but rebuilding trust with supporters will not be easy,” said political analyst Kevin Onyango.
Hon Ouda’s fallout with influential ODM figures ahead of the 2022 polls significantly weakened his political standing.
Some of the leaders who opposed him during that period are now influential within the ODM party structures.
Once considered popular among young voters and women, analysts say his support base has gradually weakened over the years.
A youth leader in Kisumu Central, who requested anonymity, said many young people now feel disconnected from the former MP.
“People still remember what he did when he was MP, but politics changes quickly. The youth want leaders who are consistently visible on the ground,” he said.
Observers note that Ouda’s recent political activities have not generated the level of excitement many expected from a former legislator attempting a comeback.
Bovince Relies on Grassroots Meetings.
Kisumu County Chief Officer for Education Bovince Ochieng is viewed as one of the youngest aspirants in the race.
He has recently intensified town hall meetings and consultations across the constituency as he seeks to build support among residents.
Despite the growing visibility, critics argue that his close association with the county administration could become a political burden.
“He is trying to market himself as a fresh leader, but voters may still judge him based on the performance of the county government,” said a local political commentator.
Mr Ochieng previously served in the county trade department before being moved to education.
Some traders in Kisumu claim businesses suffered under county operations, citing demolitions, harassment by enforcement officers, and limited support for small traders.
Parents have also raised concerns over delays in bursary disbursements under the county education department.
A resident of Kondele said frustrations over service delivery could affect the aspirant’s chances.
“People are struggling economically. Leaders linked to the current administration will have to work extra hard to convince voters,” she said.
Still, supporters of Mr Ochieng argue that he remains energetic, educated, and capable of connecting with younger voters.
Joachim Emerging as Early Favourite.
Kondele Ward MCA Joachim Oketch, popularly known as “Swagga”, is increasingly being mentioned as one of the frontrunners in the contest.
Currently serving his second term as MCA, Joachim has built a reputation as an outspoken and charismatic politician with strong support among the youth.
“Joachim understands grassroots politics very well. He has mastered how to engage young people and mobilize supporters,” said George Ooko, a local.
His supporters believe he represents a new generation of leadership for Kisumu Central.
The MCA also benefits from regional dynamics within local politics.
Coming from Karachuonyo in Homa Bay County, some residents see his candidacy as a chance to break what they describe as the dominance of politicians from Siaya County in the constituency.
However, critics have questioned his links to county and assembly-related contracts allegedly associated with his business interests.
Political opponents have also accused him of being overly calculating in his political approach, claims his supporters dismiss as normal political attacks.
Despite the criticism, many observers believe Joachim currently poses the biggest challenge to all other aspirants, especially former MP Fred Ouda.
Abdul Kadir Seeking Political Comeback.
Businessman Abdul Kadir is also attempting to re-enter the political scene after years away from active politics.
Many political observers believe his strongest opportunity came during the 2012 elections when he unsuccessfully sought the ODM ticket.
Following the nomination dispute, he later shifted to Ford Kenya but failed to make a major impact politically.
Since then, Abdul has largely focused on private business ventures.
His recent declaration that he will contest again has not significantly shaken the political landscape in Kisumu Central.
“Abdul still commands respect in some circles, but politics has changed greatly since he last actively campaigned,” said a political observer in Kisumu.
Some analysts believe he could split support among sections of the Muslim community that had recently gravitated toward Edward Onyango.
Bob CEO Building Influence Through Youth and Sports.
Edward Onyango, widely known as Bob CEO, has steadily built his public image through philanthropy and youth empowerment activities.
He has become particularly popular among young people through sponsorship of football tournaments, boxing activities, and support for informal sector workers.
“Bob CEO has been visible where many politicians are absent, in sports and among hustlers,” said John Kauma, a youth football coach in Kisumu.
Political observers say his connection to the late Grace Onyango, the former Kisumu mayor and respected political figure, gives him an additional advantage in the race.
Many residents view him as approachable and community-oriented.
“He has helped many young people quietly without making too much noise about it,” said a resident of Nyalenda.
However, analysts note that the entry of Abdul Kadir could complicate his efforts to consolidate support among Muslim voters.
Still, Bob CEO remains one of the most talked-about names in the race.
Cedric Betting on UDA Ticket.
Cedric Otieno stands out as the only aspirant openly planning to contest on a UDA ticket in a region traditionally dominated by ODM.
His chances, however, remain uncertain.
Political analysts argue that any future cooperation between ODM and UDA at the national level could complicate campaigns for UDA candidates in ODM strongholds such as Kisumu.
“UDA candidates in Nyanza still face an uphill task because ODM remains deeply rooted in the region,” said analyst Ooko.
Some critics claim several UDA aspirants in the region are banking on support from the ruling party rather than strong grassroots networks.
Even so, Cedric’s supporters insist he should not be dismissed early, arguing that national politics can shift quickly before 2027.
Aete Struggling to Revive Campaign.
Bernard Aete entered the race with significant excitement about two years ago, but his momentum appears to have faded.
The aspirant from Uyoma in Siaya County initially attracted attention through aggressive mobilization campaigns and public appearances.
However, insiders claim poor political strategy and financial mismanagement weakened his campaign.
“He started very strongly but surrounded himself with the wrong advisers,” said a source familiar with his political operations.
Although he continues attending public functions and insists he is still in the race, many voters appear unconvinced.
Questions have also been raised by some residents regarding his professional background and public profile.
Despite the challenges, Aete maintains that he remains focused on the contest.
Tough Contest Ahead
As the 2027 elections draw closer, the battle for Kisumu Central is expected to intensify, especially within ODM where securing the party ticket is often viewed as the biggest hurdle.
Political observers say the race remains open, with aspirants expected to increase grassroots mobilization, community engagements, and youth outreach in the coming months.
“The contest is still very fluid. What matters now is consistency, visibility, and the ability to connect with ordinary voters,” said analyst Onyango.
For now, Kisumu Central residents are watching closely as the aspirants begin early campaigns in what promises to be one of the most closely watched political contests in the region.
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