The race to become Kisumu’s next governor in 2027 is intensifying, as Prof Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o prepares to step down after serving his final constitutional term.
Prof Nyong’o, who was first elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, is barred from seeking a third term.
The contest to replace him is being watched closely not only because of the county’s economic importance but because Kisumu is the political heartland of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party and the Luo community.
Political analysts say the outcome will shape ODM’s future beyond its long-time leader, Raila Odinga, and could determine the region’s political direction for years to come.
ODM dominance
In Kisumu, securing the ODM nomination has historically been seen as equivalent to winning the governorship itself. The county has voted overwhelmingly for the party in every election since 2007.
Although ODM has recently softened its stance towards President William Ruto’s administration with several party leaders engaging with the government grassroots voters in Kisumu remain largely loyal to the party’s traditional opposition identity, according to political observers.
This leaves aspirants with a difficult balance. Those seen as too close to the national government risk alienating ODM loyalists.
Those who maintain a hardline opposition stance may struggle to access development funding and partnership opportunities from Nairobi.
The main contenders
Several politicians have already positioned themselves to succeed Prof Nyong’o.
Dr Joshua Oron, the member of parliament for Kisumu Central, has been touring all seven sub-counties since his election in 2022.
His supporters say he represents generational change. He comes from Nyando, part of the larger Kano region, which believes it is entitled to reclaim the governorship after former Governor Jack Ranguma’s two defeats by Prof Nyong’o in 2017 and 2022.
Dr Oron’s political style emphasises accessibility and grassroots engagement. Analysts say he has succeeded in positioning himself as a candidate of change while maintaining close contact with ordinary voters.
Senator Prof Tom Ojienda is widely considered the most financially resourced candidate.
Since his election to the Senate in 2022, he has launched empowerment programmes for youth, women, traders and community groups.
His academic and legal background appeals to professionals and middle-class voters.
However, some voters question his ideological consistency, noting his earlier cooperation with President Ruto’s administration before ODM formally changed its position on government engagement.
Critics also argue that despite his resources, he has struggled to build genuine political structures at the local level.
Kisumu Deputy Governor Dr Mathews Owili is expected to campaign on continuity and administrative experience.
He has served directly under Prof Nyong’o throughout the current administration.
His deep familiarity with county operations gives him an advantage in governance credentials.
His chances may depend on whether the governor endorses him and whether ODM party structures rally behind him.
Succession politics, however, often favour candidates associated with generational transition rather than continuity.
Other potential candidates include former Kisumu Central MP Ken Obura, Kisumu West MP Rosa Buyu, and senior Nyakach politician Aduma Owuor.
Mr Obura, a former Chief Administrative Secretary in the East African Community ministry, has intensified grassroots campaigns across all seven sub-counties in recent months. His supporters believe his political experience and financial strength make him a serious contender.
Buyu could attract women, youth and reform-oriented voters seeking alternatives to traditional political establishments.
Even if she does not secure the ODM nomination, her support base could become influential during alliance negotiations.
Aduma, regarded as one of the most experienced politicians among the aspirants, is expected to rely heavily on his development record and political seniority.
Clan and regional calculations
Despite increasing urbanisation, clan and regional identity remain important factors in Kisumu elections.
The Kano community, which includes Nyando, Muhoroni and Nyakach, argues that its population size gives it a right to the governorship after Prof Nyong’o’s tenure.
However, if multiple candidates from Kano such as Dr Oron, Prof Ojienda and Aduma remain in the race, rival blocs from Kisumu East, Kisumu West and Seme could unite behind a single alternative candidate.
John Otieno a political analysts say the choice of running mate may become almost as significant as the governorship itself.
Candidates are expected to use the deputy governor slot to balance regional and clan interests and broaden countywide appeal.
National politics and ODM’s future
According to him, the succession battle is also being shaped by national politics.
“Candidates perceived to have quiet support from President Ruto’s administration could benefit from logistical advantages, development partnerships and access to state-linked political networks,” Otieno said.
But excessive proximity to Kenya Kwanza, he said carries risks among ODM loyalists still protective of the party’s opposition identity.
Concerns over political violence
Some business leaders and residents have expressed concern about what they describe as the growing association of certain politicians with political intimidation and goonism.
One businessman in Kisumu city, who spoke to The Focus Paper on condition of anonymity, said the stability and administrative order established during Prof Nyong’o’s tenure could be reversed if leaders linked to disorderly politics are elected.
“Some of us fear that the sanity and order restored under Nyong’o could easily collapse,” he said. “The county risks becoming ungovernable if politics of intimidation take root again.”
Unpredictable race
At this early stage, political observers say the race remains fluid. Dr Oron currently appears to have the strongest grassroots momentum.
Prof Ojienda commands considerable financial and institutional strength. Dr Owili retains the advantages of incumbency within the county administration.
However, Kisumu politics has historically been unpredictable. Alliances, endorsements, clan negotiations and ODM internal dynamics are capable of rapidly reshaping the political landscape.
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