Kenya’s October-December rainy season is under way, with the country’s Meteorological Service forecasting above-average rainfall in several parts of the country and warning of possible flooding, landslides and waterlogging.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority acting head Edward Muriuki said rains had begun in parts of 24 counties, including the Coast, western Kenya and the Rift Valley, and would spread to other areas over the coming weeks.
Turkana and Samburu are expected to be the last counties to receive the rains, with the onset forecast for the third or fourth week of October, Muriuki said.
He urged farmers to use county-specific forecasts because the timing and intensity of the rains would vary across the country.
“County-specific weekly and monthly forecasts are available from the offices of respective county directors of Meteorological Services,” Muriuki said.
Rains have already started in Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
The onset has also been recorded in the coastal counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi, as well as the Tana Delta.
Rainfall is expected to begin in Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo in the first or second week of October.
Much of central Kenya and Ukambani, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni, are expected to receive rains next week or the following week.
Kajiado, Taita Taveta and inland parts of Tana River are also expected to see the onset during that period.
Above-average rainfall could improve soil moisture, support land preparation and planting, regenerate pasture and increase water availability for livestock, the Met service said.
But excessive rainfall could cause waterlogging, crop diseases, disruptions to farm operations and difficulties transporting agricultural produce.
The heaviest rainfall is expected in parts of the Coast and northeastern Kenya, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir.
Above-average rainfall is also forecast in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri, and parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok.
Temperatures are expected to remain above average across the country, Muriuki said.
The October-December rains are influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures differences in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The World Meteorological Organisation expects a positive IOD to develop during the September-November period alongside strengthening El Niño conditions.
Muriuki cautioned against treating El Niño as the sole determinant of rainfall.
“Rainfall is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole,” he said.
The rains are expected to continue into January in many central, western and eastern counties. In Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, the season is expected to end in the first or second week of December.
Turkana and Samburu are expected to receive poor to fair rainfall despite the broader forecast for wetter-than-normal conditions.
The Met service advised residents in low-lying areas and near rivers to take precautions against possible flooding, waterlogging and landslides.
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